Statistics And Probability Question 457

Question: The probabilities that A and B will die within a year are p and q respectively, then the probability that only one of them will be alive at the end of the year is

[CEE 1993; Pb. CET 2004]

Options:

A) $ p+q $

B) $ p+q-2qp $

C) $ p+q-pq $

D) $ p+q+pq $

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Answer:

Correct Answer: B

Solution:

  •                 Required probability is                    P[(A will die and  $ B $  alive) or (B will die and  $ A $  alive)]                     $ =P[(A\cap {B}')\cup (B\cap {A}')] $                     Since events are independent, so                    Required probability $ =P(A)\,.\,P({B}')+P(B)\,.\,P({A}') $                                                                        $ =p\,.\,(1-q)+q(1-p)=p+q-2pq. $